As a prepper, I’ve learned to keep my eyes open for signs of potential upheaval. Black Swan events – those unpredictable occurrences that have massive impacts – can catch even the most prepared off guard. But if you know what to look for, you might just spot the warning signs before disaster strikes. I’ve compiled a list of 18 indicators that have me and most of the prepper community concerned about the possibility of a major, unexpected event on the horizon. It’s not about fear-mongering, it’s about staying informed and ready for whatever comes our way.
What Is a Black Swan Event?
Before we dive into the signs, let’s talk about what exactly a Black Swan event is. The term was coined by scholar Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his 2007 book “The Black Swan.” It refers to an event that comes as a surprise, has a major impact, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight.
Think of the 9/11 attacks or the 2008 financial crisis. These events were largely unforeseen, had massive consequences, and changed the way we think about security and economics respectively. Black Swan events are characterized by their rarity, extreme impact, and the widespread insistence that they were obvious in hindsight.
As preppers, we’re always on the lookout for potential Black Swans. While we can’t predict them (that’s part of their nature), we can prepare for a wide range of possibilities. By staying alert to unusual patterns and building our resilience, we increase our chances of weathering whatever unexpected storms may come our way.
Remember, the goal isn’t to predict the unpredictable, but to be ready for anything. That’s why I always say: hope for the best, prepare for the worst, and be ready to adapt no matter what comes.
Rapid Decline in Insect Populations
Insects are crucial for ecosystems and food production. Recent studies show alarming declines in insect populations worldwide. In Germany, flying insect biomass decreased by more than 75% over 27 years. I’m planting pollinator-friendly gardens and avoiding pesticides to support local insect populations.
Supply Chain Disruptions
Empty shelves at the grocery store aren’t just annoying – they’re a warning sign. The COVID-19 pandemic exposed the fragility of our global supply chains. Now, with ongoing issues like the semiconductor shortage, we’re seeing how quickly things can unravel. I’ve been expanding my garden and learning food preservation techniques to reduce my reliance on these vulnerable systems.
Increased Frequency of Sinkholes
There’s been a noticeable uptick in sinkhole formations globally. In Florida alone, there are an estimated 15,000 sinkholes. These sudden ground collapses can be devastating. I’ve researched my local geology and have evacuation plans ready, just in case.
Rising Sea Levels
Sea levels are rising faster than previously predicted. A 2019 study found that sea levels could rise by up to 2 meters by 2100. I’m staying informed about how this might affect my region and considering long-term relocation if necessary.
Unusual Weather Patterns
I’ve been tracking weather patterns for years, and let me tell you, things are getting weird. We’re seeing more frequent extreme events – from record-breaking heatwaves to unprecedented cold snaps. In 2021, Texas experienced a winter storm that left millions without power. This kind of anomaly is becoming more common, and it’s stretching our infrastructure to its limits. Keep an eye on your local weather trends and be ready for the unexpected.
Increasing Antibiotic Resistance
The rise of superbugs resistant to our strongest antibiotics is a growing concern. In 2019, the CDC reported that antibiotic-resistant infections cause over 35,000 deaths per year in the U.S. alone. I’m focusing on prevention and boosting my natural immunity to reduce reliance on antibiotics.
Cyber Attack Surge
The digital world is under constant assault, but lately, the attacks have been ramping up. In 2021, we saw the Colonial Pipeline hack that disrupted fuel supplies across the East Coast. These aren’t just inconveniences; they’re threats to our way of life. I’ve started keeping paper records of important information and stocking up on cash, just in case our digital systems go down.
Increasing Social Unrest
Political tensions are at a boiling point in many parts of the world. We’ve seen protests turn into riots, and civil discourse become increasingly uncivil. The January 6th events at the U.S. Capitol showed how quickly things can escalate. I’m not taking sides here, but I am paying attention and making sure I have plans to keep my family safe if things get out of hand in my area.
Unexplained Sky Phenomena
There’s been an increase in reports of unusual sky phenomena, from mysterious drones to unexplained lights. The U.S. Navy has even acknowledged encounters with unidentified aerial phenomena. While I’m not jumping to conclusions, I’m keeping an open mind and staying alert to anything unusual in the skies.
Rapid Technological Advancements
Technology is advancing at a breakneck pace, and while that’s exciting, it’s also concerning. AI is developing faster than we can regulate it, and the potential for misuse is enormous. Remember when deepfakes were just a novelty? Now they’re a serious threat to information integrity. I’m focusing on developing skills that can’t be easily automated and staying informed about tech developments.
Unusual Animal Behavior
Animals often sense danger before we do. In 2004, animals in Thailand were observed fleeing to higher ground before the devastating tsunami hit. I’ve noticed changes in local wildlife patterns – birds migrating at unusual times, or typically nocturnal animals out during the day. It might seem small, but nature often sends us warnings if we’re willing to pay attention.
Economic Instability
The economy has been on a roller coaster ride lately. We’ve seen record-breaking stock market highs followed by dramatic crashes. The GameStop saga showed how vulnerable our financial systems are to manipulation. I’m diversifying my assets and skills, making sure I’m not too reliant on any one source of income or savings.
Increased Seismic Activity
Earthquakes and volcanic eruptions seem to be in the news more often these days. The 2018 eruption of Kilauea in Hawaii reminded us how quickly these events can disrupt lives. I’ve been monitoring global seismic activity through USGS reports, and the trends are concerning. Even if you don’t live in a traditionally earthquake-prone area, it’s worth having a plan.
Unusual Solar Activity
Our sun goes through cycles, but recent solar activity has been out of the ordinary. Solar flares can disrupt communications and power grids, potentially throwing us back to a pre-electronic age. The Carrington Event of 1859 showed us the sun’s potential for disruption – and that was before we relied so heavily on electronics. I’ve invested in Faraday cages for essential electronics, just in case.
Rapid Spread of New Diseases
COVID-19 caught the world off guard, but it’s not the only disease we need to worry about. Antibiotic-resistant bacteria are on the rise, and new viruses are emerging all the time. I’m staying up-to-date on global health news and maintaining a robust immune system through diet and lifestyle choices. A well-stocked first aid kit and knowledge of natural remedies are also essential.
Unexplained Mass Animal Deaths
There have been several instances of unexplained mass animal deaths in recent years. In 2020, hundreds of elephants died mysteriously in Botswana. These events could be canaries in the coal mine for environmental changes or new diseases. I pay attention to these reports and consider how they might impact the food chain and ecosystem in my area.
Increasing Frequency of “Glitches”
From stock market flash crashes to airline booking system failures, we’re seeing more frequent glitches in complex systems. These could be warning signs of larger systemic vulnerabilities. I’m working on developing offline alternatives for essential tasks and maintaining important documents in physical form. Remember, in a true Black Swan event, our intricate technological systems might be the first to go.
Shifting Magnetic Poles
The Earth’s magnetic north pole has been moving at an accelerated rate in recent years. This shift could potentially affect everything from our navigation systems to migratory animal patterns. I’ve started learning traditional navigation methods, just in case GPS becomes unreliable.
